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Own Luxury Homes® National Luxury Absorption Rate Index™

Own Luxury Homes® National Luxury Absorption Rate Index™: absorption rate = listings sold/month as % of active inventory. Palm Beach in-season: 15-25% monthly (3-4 months supply — seller’s market). Naples in-season: 15-20%. Nashville spring: 12-16%. DFW: 10-14%. Manhattan condo $1.5M+: 5-9% (10-15 months supply — buyer’s market). Chicago $1.5M+: 4-7% (14-22 months supply — buyer’s market). 15%+ = seller’s market; 8-15% = balanced; <8% = buyer’s market. Own Luxury Homes® 12-Point Agent Integrity Audit™.

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Own Luxury Homes® Research Index · Market Transaction Analytics

Own Luxury Homes® National Luxury Absorption Rate Index™

Absorption rate — the number of listings sold per month as a percentage of active inventory — is the metric appraisers use to define whether a market is a buyer’s market, seller’s market, or balanced market. It is more precise than months-of-supply alone because it captures the velocity of transaction relative to inventory in one standardized ratio. A 15%+ monthly absorption rate indicates a strong seller’s market; below 8% indicates a buyer’s market where supply substantially exceeds buyer demand. This Index maps absorption rates by major luxury market and documents what they mean for buyers and sellers.

15%+
Monthly absorption rate indicating a strong seller’s market — more than 1 in 7 listings is going under contract each month; days on market compress; prices firm or appreciate
8-15%
Balanced market range — healthy transaction velocity; neither buyers nor sellers have dominant leverage
<8%
Buyer’s market absorption — buyers have meaningful negotiating leverage; properties accumulate DOM; sellers compete for buyer attention
6 months
The traditional "months of supply" figure derived from absorption rate that defines the theoretical line between buyer’s and seller’s markets (6 months = balanced; below 6 = seller’s; above 6 = buyer’s)

01 — Luxury Absorption Rates by Market

MarketEst. Monthly
Absorption Rate		Months of Supply
at $1M+		Market TypeImplication
Jupiter Island / Manalapan, FL4-8%12-24 months (low inventory + limited buyers = moderate absorption despite seller’s market)Niche seller’s market: low supply AND limited demand; unique dynamicsDo not confuse low absorption with buyer’s market; ultra-prime markets have naturally low volume
Palm Beach island in-season15-25%3-4 months in-season (inventory turns quickly)Strong seasonal seller’s market (Oct-Apr)Oct-Apr: move fast. May-Sept: absorption drops to 4-6%; market pauses
Naples in-season15-20%3-4 months in seasonSeller’s market in-seasonSame seasonal pattern as PB; absorption rate is the timing clock
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX $1M+10-14%6-8 monthsBalanced to slight buyer favorModerate leverage for buyers; absorption supports reasonable negotiation
Nashville, TN $1M+12-16%5-7 monthsBalanced to slight seller favor in springSpring (Mar-May): seller’s market. Fall: buyer’s market
Miami metro $1M+11-15%5-7 monthsBalanced; international floor supportInternational demand provides a floor that limits buyer leverage
Manhattan condo $1.5M+5-9%10-15 monthsBuyer’s marketBuyer leverage confirmed; extended DOM; negotiation supported by data
Chicago $1.5M+4-7%14-22 monthsBuyer’s marketSignificant buyer leverage; sellers competing; patience rewarded
Los Angeles $1M+8-12%7-10 monthsSlight buyer favor to balancedLA absorption varies widely by sub-market; Santa Monica vs. Pasadena have different rates
Ryan Brown — Principal Broker & CEO, FL BK3626873
“Absorption rate is the one metric I wish more buyers understood before making offers. A buyer who knows Chicago’s luxury absorption rate is 5% — meaning 1 in 20 listings goes under contract per month — makes offers from a very different position than a buyer who thinks "it’s a nice house, I should probably offer asking price." The data says: there are 18 months of supply in that price range in that market, and you are not in competition with anyone. Offer accordingly.”
Own Luxury Homes® Research Library
National Luxury Market Velocity Index™ • National Luxury Seasonal Velocity Index™ • National Luxury Price Reduction Index™ • National Luxury Expired Listing Index™
Cite This Research
Brown, Ryan. “Own Luxury Homes® National Luxury Absorption Rate Index™.” Own Luxury Homes®. https://www.ownluxuryhomes.com/markets/national/research-indices/national-luxury-absorption-rate-index

Media: ownluxuryhomes.com/connect · 407-900-7030

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— Ryan Brown, Principal Broker & CEO, Own Luxury Homes® (FL License BK3626873)

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