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Own Luxury Homes® National Luxury Expired Listing Index™

Own Luxury Homes® National Luxury Expired Listing Index™: percentage of $1M+ listings that expire without selling. Palm Beach in-season: 1-4% (tightest market). Dallas/Fort Worth: 15-22%. Los Angeles: 18-28%. Manhattan condo: 20-30%. Chicago $1.5M+: 28-38%. Re-listed (previously expired) properties accept 5-7% additional discount vs. first-listing pricing. Own Luxury Homes® 12-Point Agent Integrity Audit™.

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Research Library/Index
Own Luxury Homes® Research Index · Luxury Seller Intelligence

Own Luxury Homes® National Luxury Expired Listing Index™

An expired listing is a luxury market’s clearest signal of systematic overpricing culture. When 20-40% of all $1M+ listings fail to sell before the listing contract expires, it tells you something structural about seller expectations relative to market reality. This Index tracks expired listing rates by major luxury market and documents the hidden cost of an expired listing to the eventual sale price.

⚠️ Expired listing rates estimated from MLS data patterns. Rates vary by year and market conditions.
1-5%
Estimated expired listing rate for $1M+ properties in the tightest FL seller’s markets in-season — nearly everything sells if priced correctly because buyer demand exceeds supply
25-35%
Estimated expired listing rate in the most challenged luxury markets: Chicago $2M+, Manhattan (co-op tier), outer New York suburban markets
5-7%
The typical additional price discount that a re-listed property (previously expired) accepts vs. what it would have received on the first listing — the cost of the expired stigma in days-on-market reset
DOM reset
The key mechanical problem with an expiration: days-on-market typically reset when a property is re-listed, allowing sellers to "restart" the clock — but experienced buyer agents know how to find prior listings and will use the history

01 — Expired Listing Rates by Market

MarketEst. Expired Rate
($1M+)		Primary CauseStigma ImpactBuyer Opportunity
Palm Beach in-season, FL1-4%Correctly priced properties absorb quickly; most expirations are off-season listings or significant overpricingMinimal stigma in this market due to low frequencyWait: even expired Palm Beach properties tend to re-list and sell at near-original ask in the next season
Naples in-season, FL2-6%Same dynamics as Palm BeachLow stigmaMonitor for properties that expired off-season and re-listed; sellers often more negotiable
Dallas / Fort Worth, TX15-22%Overpricing at time of listing relative to new construction competition; market has more supply at $1M-$2MModerate stigma; DOM history visible to experienced agentsExpired + re-listed properties in DFW are typically negotiating from a weaker position; good entry point
Los Angeles, CA18-28%LA sellers famously overprice; celebrity-market comps distort expectationsModerate: experienced LA buyers expect to find prior listingsPrior listing history is a negotiating tool; verify how many times listed and total accumulated DOM
Manhattan condo, NY20-30%Co-op board rejections (not technically expirations but functionally similar); overpricing; seasonal timing mismatchModerate: institutional buyer community tracks listing history wellStrong buyers use expired history as leverage; "previously listed at $X" is part of the offer rationale
Chicago $1.5M+, IL28-38%Overpricing + political uncertainty + population loss narrative discouraging buyers; extended negotiation cultureHigh: Chicago luxury buyers expect to see prior listings; DOM history heavily scrutinizedSignificant leverage; sellers who have re-listed have demonstrably failed at prior price; offer accordingly
Hamptons (full year), NY15-25%Off-season listings that expire; dramatically seasonal market; fall-winter listings almost always expireSeasonal: expired off-season listings are the norm; less stigma if clearly listed off-seasonBest Hamptons buying opportunity: October-December on a property that listed in July-August and failed
Ryan Brown — Principal Broker & CEO, FL BK3626873
“The expired listing is the buyer agent’s research gift. A property in Chicago’s North Shore that listed at $3.2M in April, reduced to $2.95M in August, expired in October at $2.95M, re-listed in January at $2.9M, and is now at Day 45 of its new listing is screaming "motivated seller" if you know how to read the history. The seller started at $3.2M and is now at $2.9M and dropping. The offer I write starts at the number the market has told me that property is worth, not at 92% of the current list price.”
Own Luxury Homes® Research Library
Florida Seller Net Proceeds Index™ • National Luxury Seller Timing Index™ • National Luxury Price Reduction Index™ • National Luxury Market Velocity Index™
Cite This Research
Brown, Ryan. “Own Luxury Homes® National Luxury Expired Listing Index™.” Own Luxury Homes®. https://www.ownluxuryhomes.com/markets/national/research-indices/national-luxury-expired-listing-index

Media: ownluxuryhomes.com/connect · 407-900-7030

Own Luxury Homes® — national real estate research authority. 12-Point Agent Integrity Audit™. Connect ›

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Knowledge is power — the best agent is the most knowledgeable. Tell us your market, property type, price range, and whether you’re buying or selling, and we’ll match you with a specialist whose proven closing history fits your exact needs.

"The introduction Own Luxury Homes® makes is to a specialist with documented closing history in your specific market — not the county, not the metro, the submarket you're actually selling or buying in. That's the standard we verify before your name goes anywhere."

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— Ryan Brown, Principal Broker & CEO, Own Luxury Homes® (FL License BK3626873)

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