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Own Luxury Homes® National Wildfire Real Estate Risk Index™

Own Luxury Homes® National Wildfire Real Estate Risk Index™: Camp Fire 2018: $16.5B insured loss; 7 major carriers restricted CA by 2025. Malibu/Pacific Palisades: $50,000-$100,000+/yr fire insurance or no private market. Colorado Marshall Fire 2021: first suburban Denver wildfire, 1,000+ homes destroyed. 2.5M additional WUI homes effectively uninsurable or facing dramatically higher premiums 2018-2025. Florida scrubland fires produce negligible structural real estate loss; standard HO coverage available without WUI surcharge. Own Luxury Homes® 12-Point Agent Integrity Audit™.

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Own Luxury Homes® Research Index · Climate & Physical Risk

Own Luxury Homes® National Wildfire Real Estate Risk Index™

Wildfire has displaced earthquake, flood, and hurricane as the dominant insurance crisis driver in Western U.S. real estate markets. California’s Camp Fire (2018, $16.5B insured loss), Colorado’s Marshall Fire (2021, first-ever suburban Denver wildfire), and Oregon’s 2020 fires burned more than 1 million acres, permanently altering the insurance landscape for properties in the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI). This Index maps wildfire real estate risk by market, documents the insurance consequences, and compares WUI exposure to the fire-resistant Florida alternative.

⚠️ Wildfire risk models evolve with climate data. Verify current risk designation and insurance availability for any specific property at risk.rocketmortgage.com or firststreet.org before purchase.
$16.5B
Insured losses from California’s Camp Fire (2018) alone — the most destructive wildfire in California history, destroying the entire town of Paradise (27,000 residents)
2.5M
Estimated additional homes in the U.S. Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) that became effectively uninsurable or faced dramatically increased premiums between 2018 and 2025
7
Number of major insurance carriers that have restricted or ceased writing new homeowners policies in California since 2022 (State Farm, Allstate, Farmers, and others)
$0
Estimated Florida wildfire real estate market loss from major wildfire events in the 2018-2025 period — Florida’s scrub fires are the primary wildfire risk but produce negligible structural real estate loss

01 — Wildfire Real Estate Risk by Market

Market / RegionRisk TierKey ContextInsurance StatusFL Alternative
Sierra Nevada Foothills, CA
(Paradise, Grass Valley, Nevada City)		CRITICALSite of Camp Fire; ongoing WUI risk; fire-adapted communities program active but risk structuralMany major carriers non-renewing; FAIR Plan (insurer of last resort) premiums 3-5x standard marketFL Gulf Coast: $0 wildfire risk; hurricane is the primary peril
North Bay, CA
(Napa, Sonoma, Santa Rosa)		VERY HIGH2017 Tubbs Fire destroyed 5,600+ structures; ongoing rebuilding with elevated risk; wine country estates face severe WUI exposurePrivate market severely constrained; FAIR Plan often only option; premiums $8,000-$25,000+/yr for hillside propertiesFL alternative: Sarasota, Naples for lifestyle buyers seeking wine-country equivalent climate
Los Angeles (hillside / canyon), CA
(Malibu, Pacific Palisades, Bel Air)		VERY HIGHWoolsey (2018), Getty (2019) fires. LA canyons remain high ignition risk with inadequate defensible space.Malibu market: some properties facing $50,000-$100,000+/yr in fire insurance or effectively no private marketFL alternative: Palm Beach, Jupiter for luxury coastal without wildfire
Colorado Front Range WUI
(Boulder County, Jefferson County)		HIGHMarshall Fire (2021): first urban wildfire in CO history; destroyed 1,000+ suburban homes; wildfire now a suburban Denver riskMajor carriers have restricted CO WUI market; significant premium increases 2022-2025; some FAIR Plan useFL alternative: Naples or Sarasota for retirees leaving CO
Oregon / Washington WUI
(Portland outskirts, Bend, Eastern WA)		ELEVATED2020 OR fires burned 1M+ acres; Bend WUI growing concern; Eastern WA prairie fires consistent riskMarket tightening; private market still available but rapidly restricting; FAIR Plan expandingFL alternative: Gainesville, Tallahassee for FL college-town lifestyle at low wildfire risk
Texas Hill Country / WUIMODERATEBastrop County fires (2011: 1,700 homes). TX WUI risk lower than CA but growing.Insurance available but WUI properties increasingly rated separatelyFL inland: lower combined risk profile than TX Hill Country WUI
Florida scrubland
(Inland central FL)		LOW (real estate impact)FL scrub fires occur but are typically low-intensity ground fires that spread slowly; structural loss risk minimal vs. CA crown firesStandard homeowners insurance covers FL fire perils without WUI surcharge in almost all casesFL IS the alternative
Sources: NOAA; Cal FIRE; Insurance Information Institute; Colorado Division of Insurance. FAIR Plan = state insurer of last resort. WUI = Wildland-Urban Interface. Fire risk changes with weather conditions; verify current insurer availability before purchase.
Ryan Brown — Principal Broker & CEO, FL BK3626873
“The wildfire conversation is the one California buyers most often bring to me as the tipping point in their relocation decision. A homeowner in Malibu who has watched their homeowners insurance non-renewed twice and is now paying $55,000/year on a FAIR Plan policy that covers $2.5 million in structure has done the math. At $55,000/year vs. $12,000/year for equivalent coverage on an equivalent Palm Beach home, the insurance differential alone pays for a significant fraction of the Florida carrying costs. And the wildfire risk itself becomes zero.”
Own Luxury Homes® Research Library
Florida Flood Zone Ownership Cost Index™ • Florida Hurricane Value Recovery Index™ • Florida Insurance Availability Score™ • Texas Flood Zone Ownership Cost Index™ • National Luxury Market Velocity Index™
Cite This Research
Brown, Ryan. “Own Luxury Homes® National Wildfire Real Estate Risk Index™.” Own Luxury Homes®. https://www.ownluxuryhomes.com/markets/national/research-indices/national-wildfire-real-estate-risk-index

Media: ownluxuryhomes.com/connect · 407-900-7030

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— Ryan Brown, Principal Broker & CEO, Own Luxury Homes® (FL License BK3626873)

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