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Own Luxury Homes® National Climate Migration Real Estate Index™
Own Luxury Homes® National Climate Migration Real Estate Index™: 5.4M Americans in climate-stressed net out-migration counties (First Street/UVM, 2022). 13M projected climate migrants by 2100 (Columbia University Climate School). Northern CA wildfire counties: net out since 2017-2018. Coastal Louisiana: 10%+ population loss in some parishes since 2005. Florida: #1 national climate migration net inflow beneficiary — tax + lifestyle outweigh risk for high-income migrants. Own Luxury Homes® 12-Point Agent Integrity Audit™.
Own Luxury Homes® National Climate Migration Real Estate Index™
Climate change is becoming a measurable real estate migration driver. First Street Foundation and University of Vermont research documents statistically significant correlation between climate risk escalation and domestic migration in U.S. counties from 2012-2024. Florida, despite its own risks, is the nation’s #1 net inflow beneficiary of climate migration because its tax and lifestyle value proposition outweighs risk concerns for most high-income migrants.
01 — Climate Migration: Net Losing and Net Gaining Markets
| Market / Region | Migration Direction | Primary Climate Driver | Real Estate Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern CA (Paradise, Butte, Shasta) | NET OUT | Wildfire: Camp Fire 2018 eliminated entire communities; insurance crisis ongoing | Property values depressed in highest-risk corridors; de facto uninsurability in some areas |
| Coastal Louisiana (New Orleans, Terrebonne) | NET OUT | SLR + subsidence + hurricane frequency; parishes literally losing ground | 10%+ population loss in some parishes since 2005; structurally challenged real estate market |
| Houston flood-prone zip codes | MIXED | Three 500-year floods in 3 years; FEMA repetitive loss properties; flood fatigue | Zip-code-level split: flooded areas stagnant; unflooded areas still appreciating |
| Norfolk / Hampton Roads, VA | NET OUT (selective) | Fastest SLR in continental U.S. (subsidence + SLR); DoD formally flagged | Some waterfront communities facing chronic inundation; federal investment partial offset |
| Florida (statewide) | STRONG NET IN | Counter-intuitive: receives climate migrants despite own risks | Most significant Sun Belt net inflow beneficiary; in-migration demand supporting prices despite risk escalation |
| Tennessee / Nashville | NET IN | Perceived climate-resilient: inland, no SLR, no wildfire, moderate tornado risk | Nashville explicitly marketed as "climate refuge"; growing net inflow documented |
| Michigan / Great Lakes region | EARLY NET IN SIGNAL | Freshwater availability; moderate heat; no hurricane/SLR; no wildfire | Emerging trend; premium lake community appreciation; broader market still flat |
| Vermont / New Hampshire mountains | NET IN (small but documented) | Climate-resilient; 4 seasons; low wildfire; no SLR | Stowe, Hanover area accelerating interest from NYC/Boston climate migrants |
| Phoenix metro | MIXED (still growing) | Extreme heat flagged as long-term risk; water scarcity emerging concern | Still growing; heat concern documented but not yet producing net out-migration |
| Mountain West (Boise, Spokane) | NET IN | Relative climate resilience vs. CA; moderate vs. Phoenix heat | Significant appreciation driven partly by CA/WA climate migration |
| Sources: First Street Foundation Climate Migration (2022); University of Vermont; Columbia University Climate School; Census Bureau ACS migration flows. Directional trends; individual market outcomes depend on many factors. | |||
Brown, Ryan. “Own Luxury Homes® National Climate Migration Real Estate Index™.” Own Luxury Homes®. https://www.ownluxuryhomes.com/markets/national/research-indices/national-climate-migration-real-estate-indexMedia: ownluxuryhomes.com/connect · 407-900-7030
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