Own Luxury Homes®
Buyer's vs Seller's Market: How to Read Your Local Market
Market type: months of supply (<3=seller; >6=buyer); DOM trend; sale-to-list ratio (>100%=seller). 64-day national median DOM (2026 highest since 2018); 4.6 months supply. Sun Belt shifting buyer-friendly; Northeast/coastal still seller’s. Own Luxury Homes® 12-Point Agent Integrity Audit™ — specialists who pull hyper-local data.
Buyer's vs Seller's Market: How to Read Your Local Market in 3 Data Points
"The housing market is a seller’s market." "The housing market is shifting to buyers." These statements appear in national news every month and are simultaneously true in some markets and false in others. Miami’s market and Detroit’s market are not the same market. The Upper East Side of Manhattan and suburban Ohio are not the same market. This page gives you the three data points that define what kind of market your specific ZIP code is — and how to get them from your agent before you make any offer or listing decision.
The Three Definitive Data Points
1. Months of Supply (Inventory)
Months of supply = active listings ÷ monthly sales pace. Under 3 months: strong seller’s market. 3–6 months: balanced market. Over 6 months: buyer’s market. This is the most reliable single indicator of market type. Get this number for your specific city or neighborhood, not the county or metro average. A county with 4 months of supply may have specific neighborhoods at 1.5 months (strong seller) and others at 8 months (buyer).
2. Days on Market Trend
Days on market (DOM): how long listings sit before going under contract. Under 14 days: strong seller’s market — buyers must act immediately. 14–30 days: competitive market with some negotiation room. 30–60 days: balanced; sellers should price carefully. Over 60 days: buyer’s market — sellers need to compete on price or incentives. More important than the number: is it rising or falling? Rising DOM = market cooling. Falling DOM = market heating. The trend matters as much as the current level.
3. Sale-to-List Price Ratio
What percentage of the list price homes are actually closing at. Over 100%: seller’s market — buyers are paying above list to win. 98–100%: balanced market. Under 97%: buyer’s market — negotiation below list is common. Under 95%: strong buyer’s market — meaningful price reductions available. In January 2026, buyers who paid below asking paid an average of 7.9% below original list (Redfin) — the largest discount since 2012.
How to Assess Your Specific Market
| Data Point | Where to Get It | What to Ask Your Agent | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Months of supply | MLS data via agent; Redfin/Zillow approximate | "What is the current months of supply in [specific neighborhood/price range]?" | |||
| Days on market trend | MLS data; compare to 6 and 12 months ago | "How has DOM changed over the last 6 months in this ZIP?" | |||
| Sale-to-list ratio | MLS data via agent; harder to get on portals | "What percentage of recent sales closed above vs below list, and by how much?" | |||
| Price reduction frequency | Zillow/Redfin "price reduced" filter; MLS | "What share of active listings have had price cuts in the last 30 days?" | |||
| Portals like Zillow and Redfin provide approximate data that is 1–6 hours behind the MLS. For active market assessment, get data directly from your agent’s MLS access. | |||||
Current Market Status by Region (Mid-2026)
| Region | Market Type | Key Indicators | Buyer or Seller Advantage? | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast (NY, MA, CT, NJ) | Seller’s market | Low inventory; high demand; prices rising | Sellers: limited negotiation room | ||
| Pacific Coast (CA, WA, OR) | Mixed: coastal = seller’s; inland = balanced | Inventory improving; coastal still tight | Coastal: seller; inland: approaching balanced | ||
| Sun Belt (FL, TX, AZ, NV) | Shifting to balanced/buyer’s | Inventory surged from overbuilding; DOM rising | Buyers: meaningful negotiation power in FL, AZ, TX | ||
| Midwest (OH, IN, IL, MI, MO) | Balanced to slight seller’s | Strong employment; affordable; steady demand | Competitive but not frantic; some negotiation room | ||
| Mountain West (CO, UT, ID) | Cooling from extreme seller’s | Post-pandemic correction in progress; Boise, Denver easing | Buyers gaining power vs 2021–2022 | ||
| Southeast (GA, NC, SC, TN) | Competitive balanced market | Strong in-migration; new construction adding supply | Competitive; some neighborhoods still multiple-offer | ||
| Regional generalizations; specific submarkets vary significantly. Get hyper-local data from your agent. | |||||
How Market Type Changes Buyer and Seller Strategy
| Strategy Element | Seller’s Market | Balanced Market | Buyer’s Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offer price | At or above list; expect escalation | At or 1–3% below; data-driven | 5–10%+ below list; use comparable solds |
| Contingencies | Often waived or compressed | Standard contingencies accepted | Full contingencies expected; inspection negotiation common |
| Earnest money | 2–3%+ signals commitment | 1–2% standard | 1% acceptable; seller has limited leverage |
| Time pressure | Act within 24–48 hours | Days to consider | Sellers accommodating; take time |
| Price reductions | Rare; list price = market | Moderate; some reductions available | Common; starting price is negotiating position |
| Seller concessions | Unlikely | Possible; closing costs, rate buydown | Common; credits, repairs, closing costs |
“Buyers who read national headlines and apply them to specific markets make expensive mistakes. I had a buyer in 2024 who was convinced it was a buyer’s market because national news said inventory was rising. We were in a neighborhood with 1.8 months of supply and homes going in 8 days. He wrote a below-list offer and lost three homes before adjusting his strategy. The market is always hyper-local. Three data points from your agent is more useful than a year of national headlines.”
— Ryan Brown, Principal Broker & CEO, Own Luxury Homes®
How do you know if it is a buyer's or seller's market?
Three data points: months of supply (under 3 = seller's; over 6 = buyer's), days on market trend (falling = heating; rising = cooling), and sale-to-list ratio (over 100% = seller's; under 97% = buyer's). Apply these at the neighborhood or ZIP code level, not national averages.
Is it a buyer's or seller's market in 2026?
Nationally, the market is transitioning toward balance with buyer-friendly pockets in Sun Belt markets. But national conditions mask enormous local variation: Northeast and Pacific coastal markets remain seller's markets; Florida, Texas, and Arizona have shifted toward buyer-favorable conditions in many areas.
What is months of supply in real estate?
Months of supply = active listings ÷ monthly closed sales. It represents how long it would take to sell all current inventory if no new listings arrived. Under 3 months = strong seller's market. 3–6 months = balanced. Over 6 months = buyer's market. The national figure in mid-2026 is ~4.6 months.
How do I find out what kind of market my area is?
Ask your agent for: months of supply for your target ZIP/neighborhood, current median days on market vs 6 months ago, and the average sale-to-list ratio for the last 90 days. These three numbers tell you more than any national forecast.
Own Luxury Homes® — audited specialists who pull the local data before you make a single offer decision. 12-Point Agent Integrity Audit™. Find your specialist now ›
"The introduction Own Luxury Homes® makes is to a specialist with documented closing history in your specific market — not the county, not the metro, the submarket you're actually selling or buying in. That's the standard we verify before your name goes anywhere."
— Ryan Brown, Principal Broker & CEO, Own Luxury Homes® (FL License BK3626873)