Own Luxury Homes®
Is It a Buyer’s or Seller’s Market? Three Signals
Buyer’s vs seller’s market: 3 local signals. Months of inventory (under 4 = seller, over 6 = buyer), days on market (under 30 = seller, over 60 = buyer), sale-to-list ratio (over 100% = seller, under 97% = buyer). National headlines lie about local. Own Luxury Homes® 12-Point Agent Integrity Audit™ — specialists who deliver local signals.
Is It a Buyer’s or Seller’s Market? The Three Local Signals That Tell You
National headlines tell you "the market is shifting" or "buyers are gaining leverage." Those headlines are aggregates. Your specific local market — your county, your school district, your specific price tier — may be operating on completely different signals. Phoenix and Boston can be in different market conditions simultaneously. A $400K home in Cleveland may face different conditions than a $400K home in Charlotte. This page explains the three signals that tell you what kind of market you are actually in, how to find your local data, and what each market means for your strategy.
Signal 1: Months of Inventory
Months of inventory measures how long it would take to sell every currently listed home at the current sales pace. Calculate it by dividing active listings by monthly closed sales. If there are 600 active listings and 100 sales per month, that is 6 months of inventory.
| Months of Inventory | Market Type | What It Means for Buyers | What It Means for Sellers | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 4 months | Seller’s market | Multiple offers expected; offer near or above list | Strong leverage; price to attract not bargain | ||
| 4–6 months | Balanced market | Negotiation possible; offer at or near comparable sales | Reasonable terms; some negotiation expected | ||
| Over 6 months | Buyer’s market | Significant negotiation; offer below list with concessions | Price competitively; expect inspection negotiations | ||
| NAR considers 4–6 months "balanced" historically. Below 4 favors sellers; above 6 favors buyers. | |||||
Signal 2: Median Days on Market (DOM)
How long the typical home takes to go from listing to accepted offer. A short DOM means buyers are moving fast and competing. A long DOM means homes are sitting and sellers are losing leverage.
| Median Days on Market | Market Reading | Negotiation Posture | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 30 days | Strong seller’s market | Buyers: offer fast and clean; sellers: hold firm on price | |||
| 30–60 days | Balanced | Standard negotiation; typical contingencies; reasonable timeline | |||
| 60–120 days | Buyer’s market | Buyers: request concessions; sellers: prepare to reduce price | |||
| Over 120 days | Strong buyer’s market | Buyers: aggressive negotiation; sellers: prepare to delist or significantly reduce | |||
| National median DOM was 64 days in late 2025, up from 27 at the 2022 peak. | |||||
Signal 3: Sale-to-List Price Ratio
The final sale price divided by the original list price. A ratio above 100% means homes are selling above asking — buyers competing and bidding up. Below 100% means buyers are negotiating below asking — sellers giving ground.
| Sale-to-List Ratio | Market Type | What It Tells You |
|---|---|---|
| Over 102% | Hot seller’s market | Bidding wars common; offer above list to compete |
| 100–102% | Seller’s market | Most homes selling at or slightly above list |
| 97–100% | Balanced | Modest negotiation; expect to negotiate within 3% of list |
| Under 97% | Buyer’s market | Meaningful below-list offers being accepted |
How to Find Your Local Signals
You can access this data without a real estate license. The sources:
Realtor.com Market Trends
Free local market reports for any zip code. Visit realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search and search your area; the local market trends report shows active listings, median DOM, and price trends.
Redfin Data Center
Free downloadable data by metro area and zip code. redfin.com/news/data-center provides months of supply, sale-to-list, and DOM trends.
Local MLS Quarterly Reports
Your state or regional Realtor association typically publishes a quarterly market report. Search "[your county] real estate market report" for the most recent.
Your Agent
An audited buyer’s or listing agent should produce this data for your specific price tier and neighborhood. If they cannot, that is the first red flag about the agent.
The 2026 National Picture vs Your Local Reality
As of late 2025/early 2026, the national picture is mixed: inventory has risen 24+ consecutive months, days on market is up substantially from the 2022 peak, and 17 states have inventory levels exceeding pre-pandemic 2019 levels. But Sun Belt markets (Florida, Texas, Arizona, Colorado) are noticeably more buyer-friendly than Northeast and Midwest markets, where inventory remains tight. The national headline doesn’t tell your story.
“The most expensive mistake I see is buyers and sellers making decisions based on national news. A buyer in Tampa reads about a Boston cooling and waits, missing six months of Tampa appreciation. A seller in Denver reads about Phoenix and underprices their home by 5%. The three local signals — inventory months, days on market, sale-to-list ratio — are free, public data. Check them for your actual market before you act.”
— Ryan Brown, Principal Broker & CEO, Own Luxury Homes®
How do I tell if it’s a buyer’s or seller’s market?
Three local signals: months of inventory (under 4 = seller’s, over 6 = buyer’s), median days on market (under 30 = seller’s, over 60 = buyer’s), and sale-to-list ratio (over 100% = seller’s, under 97% = buyer’s). Check your specific local data, not national headlines.
What is months of inventory in real estate?
A measure of how long it would take to sell every currently listed home at the current sales pace. Calculate by dividing active listings by monthly closed sales. Under 4 months indicates a seller’s market; over 6 months indicates a buyer’s market.
Is 2026 a buyer’s or seller’s market?
It depends on your specific local market. Nationally, inventory has risen 24+ months in a row and days on market has nearly doubled from the 2022 peak. 17 states have inventory levels above pre-pandemic 2019 levels. Sun Belt markets are more buyer-friendly; Northeast and Midwest remain seller-leaning.
Where can I find local housing market data for free?
Realtor.com Market Trends, Redfin Data Center, and your local Realtor association’s quarterly market reports all publish free local data. An audited buyer’s or listing agent should also produce specific data for your price tier and neighborhood.
Own Luxury Homes® — audited specialists who deliver your local market signals, not national speculation. 12-Point Agent Integrity Audit™. Find your specialist now ›
"The introduction Own Luxury Homes® makes is to a specialist with documented closing history in your specific market — not the county, not the metro, the submarket you're actually selling or buying in. That's the standard we verify before your name goes anywhere."
— Ryan Brown, Principal Broker & CEO, Own Luxury Homes® (FL License BK3626873)