Own Luxury Homes®
Own Luxury Homes® National Sea Level Rise Property Risk Index™
Own Luxury Homes® National Sea Level Rise Property Risk Index™: NOAA Intermediate: +10-12 inches SE Florida by 2050. Miami Beach: 0-6 ft elevation; 4x tidal flooding vs. 1990s baseline. Florida Keys: most of Monroe County within 4 ft of sea level. Palm Beach island: 8-14 ft elevation vs. Miami Beach 0-6 ft — primary SLR differentiator. Norfolk VA: fastest relative SLR in continental U.S. FL coastal real estate in FEMA SFHA: $1T+ repricing exposure. Own Luxury Homes® 12-Point Agent Integrity Audit™.
Own Luxury Homes® National Sea Level Rise Property Risk Index™
Sea level rise is not a future event in Southeast Florida — it is a documented, current condition producing sunny-day tidal flooding in Miami Beach with no storm present. NOAA tide gauges record accelerating rates across the Southeast coast. This Index maps current and projected SLR risk by coastal real estate market.
01 — Sea Level Rise Risk by Coastal Market
| Market | Current Elev. | SLR Risk Tier | 30-yr Projection | Buyer Consideration |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Beach, FL | 0-6 ft | VERY HIGH | NOAA Int. +10-12": Zone X to SFHA conversion by 2050; flood insurance mandatory on future mortgages | Will flood insurance be required at your exit in 20 years? Exit buyer’s financing depends on future FIRM designation. |
| Fort Lauderdale / Broward coast | 0-10 ft | HIGH | Similar to Miami Beach; barrier island more exposed than mainland | Properties priced for current conditions; repricing risk on 20+ year hold. |
| Florida Keys (Monroe County) | 0-4 ft | CRITICAL | By 2070 NOAA Int.: significant Key areas face chronic inundation; infrastructure viability is the question | Extraordinary lifestyle premium; buyers accepting structural long-term risk. |
| Palm Beach island, FL | 8-14 ft | MODERATE | Higher elevation provides buffer vs. Miami Beach; beach erosion nearer-term issue | PB island elevation advantage is the primary SLR differentiator from Miami Beach. |
| Tampa Bay coast | 0-8 ft | HIGH (surge + SLR) | SLR increases storm surge inundation extent for any given storm; Helene 2024 elevated awareness | Elevation certificate more important each cycle. |
| Norfolk, VA / Chesapeake Bay | 0-5 ft (+ subsidence) | VERY HIGH (fastest in US) | 4-6 ft relative SLR by 2100; DoD formally identified as security risk | Fastest relative SLR in continental U.S. due to land subsidence + SLR combined. |
| Charleston, SC coast | 0-6 ft | HIGH | Slower than SE FL but real trajectory; $1B+ infrastructure investment planned | Elevation certificate and current NFIP quote essential pre-offer. |
| Boston / New England | Variable 0-15 ft | MODERATE | Lower rate than SE FL; higher relief in most residential areas; longer timeline | Lower near-term urgency; properties above 6 ft appropriate for 30-yr mortgage. |
| NOAA Intermediate scenario = 50th percentile likelihood. Higher scenarios possible. Local subsidence significantly affects relative SLR. Sources: NOAA NOS CO-OPS 083; First Street Foundation. | ||||
Brown, Ryan. “Own Luxury Homes® National Sea Level Rise Property Risk Index™.” Own Luxury Homes®. https://www.ownluxuryhomes.com/markets/national/research-indices/national-sea-level-rise-property-riskMedia: ownluxuryhomes.com/connect · 407-900-7030
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— Ryan Brown, Principal Broker & CEO, Own Luxury Homes® (FL License BK3626873)