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Own Luxury Homes® National Hurricane Property Risk Index™

Own Luxury Homes® National Hurricane Property Risk Index™: post-2020 average annual insured hurricane losses: $50B+. Monroe County FL: most hurricane landfalls per mile of any U.S. coast; $15,000-$30,000+/yr HO+flood+wind on $1M home. SW Florida Gulf Coast: Ian 2022 Cat 4; Charley 2004 Cat 4; post-Ian insurance market tightened. Tampa Bay: no major direct hit in 100+ years but geographic bowl creates catastrophic storm surge potential. 8-market ranking: Keys to New England. Own Luxury Homes® 12-Point Agent Integrity Audit™.

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Own Luxury Homes® Research Index · Climate & Physical Risk

Own Luxury Homes® National Hurricane Property Risk Index™

Hurricane risk is not uniformly distributed along America’s coastlines — and the differences between markets are stark enough to produce meaningfully different insurance costs, damage histories, and long-term ownership economics. This Index maps Atlantic and Gulf Coast hurricane risk by major real estate market, documents recent storm histories and their market impacts, and provides the framework for evaluating hurricane risk as a real estate variable rather than an abstract threat.

⚠️ Hurricane risk assessment from NOAA/NHC historical data and First Street Foundation. Insurance costs change annually. Verify with an insurance broker for current availability and pricing.
Category 5
The highest rating on the Saffir-Simpson Scale (sustained winds 157 mph+); relevant to FL, Gulf Coast TX, and Caribbean; no Atlantic coast market is completely immune from a Cat 5 track
$50B+
Average annual insured hurricane losses in the U.S. (post-2020 period) — a structural shift from the $10-15B annual averages of the early 2000s driven by more intense storms and coastalization of high-value property
1851
The year the first Atlantic hurricane was formally documented, giving the U.S. 175+ years of storm track data — the richest natural hazard dataset in the world, and the foundation for modern risk assessment
10-25 years
The approximate return period for a major hurricane (Cat 3+) landfall at any specific Florida coastal location — often misread as meaning a given location is "due" for a storm

01 — Hurricane Risk by Major Coastal Market

MarketHistorical Risk TierNotable Landfalls / EventsInsurance ContextOwnership Consideration
Florida Keys (Monroe County)EXTREMEMost hurricane landfalls per mile of any U.S. coast; direct exposure to both Gulf and Atlantic systems; Irma 2017 direct hitMost expensive HO+flood+wind insurance in FL; many properties require federal flood + private wind stacked; $15,000-$30,000+/yr for $1M homeExceptional lifestyle premium; buyers must fully model insurance into carry cost
Southwest FL Gulf Coast (Fort Myers/Naples/Sarasota)VERY HIGHIan (2022) Cat 4 direct hit Lee County; Charley (2004) Cat 4 Charlotte/Sarasota; Gulf Coast direct exposurePost-Ian: Citizens and private market significantly tightened; wind deductibles 2-5% of dwelling valueInsurance availability and cost the primary due diligence item; new construction fares better than pre-2002-code
Southeast FL (Miami-Dade/Broward/Palm Beach)HIGH – historical data mixedWilma (2005) Cat 3; Andrew (1992) Cat 5 Homestead; geographic angle reduces direct major hits vs. Gulf Coast historicallyHigh insurance costs driven by wind exposure; private market partially withdrawn; Citizens role significantPalm Beach: higher elevation and narrower island reduces surge risk vs. lower-lying areas
Tampa Bay (Hillsborough/Pinellas)HIGH – storm surge greatest threatNo direct major hurricane hit in 100+ years but geographic bowl creates catastrophic storm surge potential if track is right; Helene 2024 tested thisInsurance market has tightened significantly; Pinellas beach communities facing availability concernsThe "when, not if" market — actuaries have priced for the eventual Tampa direct hit
Treasure Coast / Space Coast (St. Lucie, Indian River, Brevard)MODERATE – less direct hit historyGlancing blows from multiple storms; less Gulf Coast vulnerability; lower historical direct hit frequency than SW FLModerate insurance costs vs. SW FL; better private market availabilityLower insurance burden than most FL coastal markets; Space Coast has strong employer base as stability factor
Outer Banks, NC (Dare County)HIGH – barrier island exposureFrequent glancing blows; Floyd (1999), Dorian (2019); full Cape Hatteras exposureHigh flood and wind insurance; NFIP essential; OBX is a second-home market with elevated risk toleranceBuyer profile: accepted risk for lifestyle premium; not a primary residence market for most
Texas Gulf Coast (Corpus Christi, Galveston)HIGHHarvey (2017), Rita (2005), Ike (2008); Gulf Coast direct exposure; less coastal development than FLTexas windstorm insurer TWIA (like FL Citizens) required for many coastal TX properties; premiums elevatedHouston flood + Gulf Coast wind = stacked risk; Galveston island real estate requires full risk modeling
New England coast (Cape Cod, Rhode Island)MODERATE – late-season exposureSandy (2012) NJ/NY coast; occasional late-season intensifying storms; lower historical frequency than SE coastlinePrivate market available; costs moderate vs. FL; NFIP essential for coastal propertiesLower frequency but not immune; the "once in 50 years" risk is real for barrier beaches
Hurricane risk data from NOAA NHC historical database; insurance context from market analysis. Insurance availability changes after major events. Always obtain current insurance quotes before purchase.
Ryan Brown — Principal Broker & CEO, FL BK3626873
“Hurricane risk is the most discussed real estate risk in Florida and simultaneously the most frequently mispriced. Buyers focus on the storm itself; the real financial issue is insurance: whether you can get it, what it costs, and what it covers when you need it. The markets I watch most carefully on insurance are SW Florida post-Ian and Tampa Bay, where the actuarial community has been pricing for a major direct hit that hasn’t materialized in a century but the models say is overdue. The premium reflects the model, not the recent history.”
Own Luxury Homes® Research Library
Florida Flood Zone Ownership Cost Index™ • Florida Hurricane Value Recovery Index™ • Florida Insurance Availability Score™ • Texas Flood Zone Ownership Cost Index™ • National Luxury Market Velocity Index™
Cite This Research
Brown, Ryan. “Own Luxury Homes® National Hurricane Property Risk Index™.” Own Luxury Homes®. https://www.ownluxuryhomes.com/markets/national/research-indices/national-hurricane-property-risk-index

Media: ownluxuryhomes.com/connect · 407-900-7030

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— Ryan Brown, Principal Broker & CEO, Own Luxury Homes® (FL License BK3626873)

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