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Where Americans Are Moving in 2026: Real Estate Guide
TX +391,243 residents (#1); DFW #1 U-Haul metro 2nd yr. CA lost population (−9K); #50 U-Haul 6 consecutive years; ~230K/yr outmigration. FL domestic net migration: 314K (2022)→64K now (−80%); TX+FL both "balanced" first time. SC fastest-growing state (1.5%); Myrtle Beach 3.88 in per 1 out. DC #14→#4 outmigration (DOGE effect). CA Policy Lab March 2026: leavers save $672/mo; avg home $398K lower; 48% more likely to own. Own Luxury Homes® 12-Point Agent Integrity Audit™ — relocation specialists.
Where Americans Are Moving in 2026: The Complete Migration and Real Estate Guide
The migration map of America has been redrawn. The Sun Belt boom that defined the pandemic era — millions flooding into Florida, Texas, Arizona, and the Carolinas — is decelerating in some of its flagship destinations while new winners emerge. Florida’s domestic migration fell 80% from peak. California lost population for the first time in modern history. Washington DC surged into the top exodus markets (the DOGE effect). South Carolina is now the fastest-growing state by percentage. Myrtle Beach has 3.88 people moving in for every one who leaves. This guide documents what’s actually happening with U.S. migration in 2026, what it means for home prices in every category of market, and what buyers and sellers need to know before making any relocation decision.
The 2026 Migration Scorecard: Winners, Losers, and Surprises
| State / Metro | Migration Status | Key 2026 Data | Real Estate Implication | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | ✅ #1 absolute gainer | 391,243 new residents; DFW #1 U-Haul metro; Houston #2; Austin #3 | Sustained demand; prices holding; inventory improving in Austin after peak; DFW most competitive | ||||||
| South Carolina | ✅ Fastest-growing state % | +1.5% population growth; Myrtle Beach: 3.88 in for every 1 out (MoveBuddha) | Myrtle Beach among fastest-appreciating affordable metros; inland SC undervalued relative to coastal NC | ||||||
| North Carolina | ✅ Major gainer | +145,907 net residents; #3 absolute; Charlotte + Raleigh dominant | Charlotte and Raleigh remain among most competitive mid-tier markets; prices elevated from migration surge | ||||||
| Idaho | ✅ Fast % growth | +1.4%; Boise recovering from overvaluation correction | Boise correction from 50%+ overvaluation now largely absorbed; market stabilizing | ||||||
| Florida | ⚠️ Decelerating fast | Domestic net migration: 314K (2022) → 64K now (−80%); Tampa -10% YOY prices; insurance crisis real | Coastal FL facing price pressure + insurance crisis; inland FL and smaller metros still growing | ||||||
| California | ❌ Lost population | −9,000 net; domestic outmigration ~230K/yr; #50 U-Haul 6 consecutive years; LA County −54K residents | Supply building in some CA markets; prices flat to slightly down in SF and inland; coastal markets holding | ||||||
| New York | ❌ Major outmigration | Consistently top-5 exit state; NYC still adds raw residents but loses net domestic | NYC prices resilient due to global demand; upstate NY and suburban NY softening; inventory building | ||||||
| Illinois | ❌ Persistent outmigration | Chicago population declining; high property taxes remain primary driver | Chicago prices flat to down; suburbs vs city diverging; opportunity for buyers willing to hold | ||||||
| Washington DC | ❌ New entrant — DOGE effect | Surged from #14 to #4 on outmigration list; DC prices −6.1% YOY; DOM +161% | See DOGE Federal Worker Real Estate guide; buyer opportunity in DC metro | ||||||
| Tennessee | ✅ Steady gainer | Nashville still attracting; Knoxville highest inbound ratio among mid-size metros (1.61:1) | Nashville prices elevated from prior surge; Knoxville emerging as the next affordable destination | ||||||
| Sources: Census Bureau Vintage 2025 estimates; U-Haul Growth Index 2026; MoveBuddha 2026 Moving Trends Report; PODS 2026 Moving Trends; Redfin domestic migration analysis; California Policy Lab March 2026. | |||||||||
The Critical Shift: Sun Belt Deceleration
Why Florida and Texas Are No Longer One-Way Migration Bets
For the first time in the modern data record, both Texas and Florida are now classified as “balanced” states by United Van Lines — meaning roughly equal numbers of people are moving in and out. This matters for real estate in two ways. First: the demand surge that drove pandemic-era price appreciation in these markets is no longer the automatic engine it was from 2020 to 2023. Markets that priced in infinite migration as their growth story are now repricing to a more normalized demand picture. Second: the specific markets within these states diverge sharply. Tampa Bay: prices down ~10% YOY; extreme weather + insurance crisis crushing demand. The Villages (FL): still attracting retirees; different demographic story. Austin: post-correction, stabilizing; still attractive but no longer appreciating fast. DFW: still the #1 U-Haul growth metro; strongest job market in Texas. The blanket “Florida is hot, buy anything” narrative is over. The granular, market-by-market analysis is what matters now.
The Migration Math: What Moving Can Do for Homeownership
The California Policy Lab Finding That Changes the Calculation
UC Berkeley’s California Policy Lab published a landmark study on March 31, 2026, tracking anonymized credit bureau data from 2016 to 2025 on Californians who moved vs. those who stayed. The findings: Average monthly housing cost in California: $2,376. Average monthly housing cost after moving out of state: $1,705. Monthly savings: $672. Annual savings: $8,064. Average home price in new neighborhood: $398,000 lower. Homeownership probability: 48% more likely after seven years compared to similar Californians who stayed. The conclusion from executive director Evan White: “We expected to see people moving to cheaper locations in other states, but our analysis showed the average costs dropping by nearly $400,000 — that’s a key data point for families who want to become homeowners.” This is not only a California story. The same dynamic applies to New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Massachusetts, and any high-cost state where the price-to-income ratio makes homeownership structurally inaccessible on a local income. Moving is, for millions of Americans, the most powerful affordability lever available.
“The relocation question I get constantly from buyers in high-cost markets: "Is it actually worth moving for housing?" I tell them about the California Policy Lab study. $672 less per month. $8,064 less per year. Median home price in the new neighborhood: $398,000 lower. 48% more likely to own a home in seven years. That’s not a lifestyle opinion. That’s a dataset of tens of thousands of real people tracked for a decade by UC Berkeley. The counter-argument is real too: income in destination neighborhoods is also lower — on average, by about $15,000–20,000 per year. So the math is: save $672/month in housing, potentially earn $1,200–1,600 less per month. For remote workers whose income doesn’t change: the relocation is almost always a net financial win. For in-person workers changing jobs: you have to run your specific numbers. What I tell every buyer considering relocation: run the actual math for your income, not the average. The average is useful as a starting point. Your specific situation is what determines the answer.”
— Ryan Brown, Principal Broker & CEO, Own Luxury Homes®
Where are most Americans moving in 2026?
The top destination states by net migration in 2025–2026: Texas (#1 by absolute gain, 391,243 new residents), Florida (#2, 196,980), North Carolina (#3, 145,907), South Carolina (fastest-growing state by percentage at 1.5%), and Idaho (1.4% growth). At the metro level: Dallas–Fort Worth #1 on U-Haul Growth Index, Houston #2, Austin #3. Myrtle Beach SC has the highest inbound-to-outbound ratio: 3.88:1. The Sun Belt still dominates, but the pandemic-era pace has sharply decelerated in Tampa, Orlando, and Austin specifically.
Which states are people leaving the most in 2026?
By domestic outmigration: California (#1, ~230,000/year net outflow, #50 on U-Haul Growth Index for 6 consecutive years), New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Massachusetts, and — new in 2026 — Washington DC (surged from #14 to #4 on outmigration list due to DOGE federal layoffs). Connecticut, Maryland, and Hawaii round out the bottom tier. California lost population outright for the first time, with net immigration dropping 70% year-over-year from 361,000 to 109,000.
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— Ryan Brown, Principal Broker & CEO, Own Luxury Homes® (FL License BK3626873)