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Home Values Falling 2026: Which Markets and What It Means

53% of U.S. homes lost value past year; avg 9.7% drawdown (Zillow/Moneywise 2026). National median list price: -2.2% YOY (HousingWire May 2026). 36% of active listings carry price reductions. Declining: Austin (-10–15% from 2022 peak); Phoenix; Tampa; Jacksonville. Holding/appreciating: Columbus (+2–3%); Indianapolis; KC; Charlotte. Buyer opportunity: maximum leverage in declining markets; compare to 60-day comps. Seller reality: carrying costs of waiting exceed most price reductions. Own Luxury Homes® 12-Point Agent Integrity Audit™ — local market data.

Home Values Are Falling in These U.S. Markets in 2026: What It Means for Buyers and Sellers

53% of U.S. homes lost value over the past year

53% of U.S. homes lost value over the past year, with an average drawdown of 9.7% (Zillow data cited by Moneywise/Redfin, 2026); this does not mean prices are collapsing nationally — it means the frenzied appreciation of 2020–2022 has partially reversed in many markets; the median national list price fell 2.2% year over year in May 2026 (HousingWire)

Sun Belt correction: Austin, Tampa, Jacksonville, Phoenix

Austin: home prices peaked in early 2022 and have corrected 10–15% from peak; the city still has 112% more sellers than buyers; 48% of listings have taken a price reduction; Tampa: insurance crisis + buyer hesitation pushing prices down; Jacksonville: new construction oversupply compressing resale prices; Phoenix: 40%+ of new listings carrying price reductions

36% of listings nationally carry price reductions

36% of active listings nationally had price reductions as of May 2026 (HousingWire); this was the highest level in years; sellers who listed at 2021–2022 comps are being forced to accept 2024–2025 reality; price reductions are concentrated in markets with the most new inventory and the lowest buyer demand

Markets holding: Midwest seller’s markets

While Sun Belt and coastal markets correct, Midwest markets continue to hold or appreciate: Columbus OH: median prices up ~2–3% year-over-year; Indianapolis: steady; Kansas City: slight appreciation; Charlotte and Raleigh: holding despite some softening; the divergence between buyer’s and seller’s markets is the defining feature of the 2026 housing landscape

Where Home Values Are Falling vs Holding in 2026

Market	Price Trend	Key Driver	Buyer Opportunity	Seller Reality
Austin, TX	Down 10–15% from 2022 peak; still declining in some segments	Oversupply; 112% more sellers than buyers; inventory surge from pandemic-era overbuilding	Best buyer leverage in a decade; 48% listings have price cuts; negotiate hard	Price correctly at current comps, not 2022 peak; days are numbered for overpriced listings
Phoenix, AZ	Flat to slight decline; 40%+ listings with price cuts	New construction competing directly with resale; buyer hesitation on affordability	Builder incentives fierce; rate buydowns widely available	Accept the market; every week of denial is a week of carrying costs
Tampa, FL	Soft to declining in some segments	Insurance crisis ($5,000–10,000+/yr costs); flood risk repricing; buyer pool narrowing	Insurance due diligence is critical; some of the best prices in years if you can find insurable properties	Insurance crisis is a structural headwind; price to reflect it
Jacksonville, FL	Slight decline; oversupply in some submarkets	New construction; slower job growth than anticipated	More choice; less competition	Compete on condition and price against aggressive new-build market
Las Vegas, NV	Flat; some segments declining	High price-to-income ratio; investor pullback	Deals available on investor-owned properties being offloaded	Market liquidity thinning; be competitive
Columbus, OH	Slight appreciation (+2–3% YOY)	Strong job market; in-migration; low inventory vs demand	Still competitive; less leverage than Sun Belt buyer’s markets	Sellers have modest pricing power in well-priced, well-presented homes
Indianapolis, IN	Steady	Balanced supply and demand	Good market for financed buyers; less cash-buyer competition than coastal	Price accurately; move quickly
Charlotte, NC / Raleigh, NC	Slight softening from peak; still positive long-term	Strong in-migration counterbalancing some price normalization	More inventory choice than 2021–2022; seller concessions possible	Strong fundamentals; market correcting not collapsing
Price trends are highly localized. Neighborhood-level data is more important than metro-level data for any specific purchase or listing decision. The data above reflects broad metro trends as of Q1–Q2 2026.

What Falling Prices Mean for Buyers

Falling prices in a buyer’s market create opportunity for buyers who understand the distinction: Price reductions on overpriced homes: a home that was listed for $520,000 and reduced to $490,000 is still not a deal if the true market value is $465,000. Watch the comps, not just the reduction. Actual market price declines: in markets where the median has genuinely fallen from 2022 peaks, buyers in 2026 are getting homes at prices that were unavailable 12–18 months ago. The psychological challenge: most buyers are reluctant to buy in a falling market for fear of further price declines. The data: in markets with strong job fundamentals (Austin, Tampa, Phoenix), the correction is a normalization, not a collapse. Buyers who wait for the "bottom" typically miss it by 12–18 months and buy on the way back up at higher prices.

“"Austin prices are down 12% from peak. Should I wait for them to fall more?" Here’s the honest answer: nobody knows if they’ll fall more. But I can tell you what the data says: Austin has 112% more sellers than buyers. That is maximum leverage for a buyer right now. You can negotiate price, concessions, repairs, closing costs. If you wait 12 months and the market stabilizes: that leverage disappears. If you wait 12 months and it falls another 5%: you save roughly $25,000 on a $500,000 home. But in those 12 months you paid $20,000 in rent and the negotiating leverage may be gone. The expected value of waiting vs acting now with maximum leverage is closer than most buyers realize. The data favors acting when leverage is maximum, not when prices are minimum.”

— Ryan Brown, Principal Broker & CEO, Own Luxury Homes®

Are home prices falling in 2026?

In some markets, yes. 53% of U.S. homes lost value over the past year (Zillow/Moneywise 2026 data). Median national list price down 2.2% year-over-year (HousingWire May 2026). 36% of active listings nationally carry price reductions. Markets with notable price declines: Austin (10–15% from 2022 peak), Phoenix (flat to slight decline), Tampa (soft), Jacksonville (slight decline). Markets holding or appreciating: Columbus, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Charlotte. This is a normalization from pandemic-era peaks in overbuilt Sun Belt markets, not a national collapse. For buyers in declining markets: negotiate hard; compare your offer to 60-day closed comps, not 2022 prices. For sellers: price at current comps; carrying costs of waiting exceed most reductions.

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